APC’S Choice of Senator Godswill Akpabio ~ by Charles Chukwuedo

Minister of Niger Delta Affairs, Senator Godswill Akpabio

On 4th May 2023 I rolled out a short write-up titled it’s all about strategy. Let me reference the write-up just in case you didn’t read it. Basically, the write-up as the title suggests is about the importance of Strategy not only in a political setting, in all facets of life. The theme of the write-up is the strategy Senator Godswill Akpabio employed in Rivers state at the dinner event in River’s state last week. APC gladiators gathered in Rivers State at a dinner organized in honour of Asiwaju’s visitation to the state. Akpabio took advantage of that moment; his strategy was to send a clear message to the President elect and other party stalwart that he means business. That he is a serious contender for the position of the Senate president.

To drive this point home Akpabio had planned with other Senators supporting him to join him on the floor when we were making a speech. The caliber of Senators who came out to show him solidarity by every standard are well respected Senators. The message was sent and it was delivered.

The ability to decode read in between the line is a measurement of intelligence. Some people were able to read in between the lines of my write-up. For the avoidance of doubt, I am not supporting Senator Godswill Akpabio, I don’t have a dog in this fight. The intention of the write-up is to elaborate on the importance of Strategy. Most favorably outcomes bounce off success on the efficacy of well thought out strategy. Fast forward a week after my write-up the leadership of APC zoned the positions of the national assembly.

Guess what, Senator Godswill Akpabio is the party’s choice for the position of the Senate president. What effect if any did the the strategy Senator Godswill Akpabio employed in River’s state contribute if any to this favourably outcome. One cannot say that the strategy he employed in that event is solely responsible for his nomination. I believe that the 5 minutes stunt Senator Akpabio pulled at the dinner event definitely contributed to putting him in good standing for this position combined with numerous other strategies both seen and unseen.

I needed to give a background so that my readers will understand what may have influenced APC’S choice of Senator Godswill Akpabio as their preferred choice for the position of the Senate President. My submissions here are my own personal opinion not the position of APC. Why the choice of Senator Godswill Akpabio. Why did APC leadership not zone the position to the South East? The reason/s is not farfetched. Come with me, let us extrapolate the factors that may have led to the choice of Senator Godswill Akpabio. Read More>>>

It is my considered opinion that the choice of the leadership of APC led by the president elects, Asiwaju to nominate a Senator from the South South geo political zone instead of the South East or any other geo political zone which expressed interest for the third highest ranking political position hinge on futuristic political calculation. Let me break this down further, before I do let me mention the geo political zones that have been rewarded with the responsibility to pilot the affairs of the 10th national assembly. These law makers are referred to as the principal officers of the national assembly.

The breakdown are as follows; the upper chamber which is the Senate, the Senate president position is zoned to the South South. The deputy Senate president position is zoned to the North West. The Lower chamber which is the house of Representative, the Speakership position is zoned to the North West. The deputy speakership position is zoned to the South East. From this breakdown the North West geopolitical zone got the lion’s share of the pie. Why did APC choose to reward the North West geo political zone with the two key positions some may ask. Why has the leadership of APC not zone the Senate president position to the South East.

The proponents of zoning the Senate president position to the South East argue that the South East has been marginalized over the years. They hold the view that if APC reward the South East with the Senate president position this would hopefully help douse the tension in the South East region.

To my mind the reason for these zoning arrangements is based on political considerations. It is based on winning the 2027 election. I made reference earlier to futuristic political calculation. By this I mean to Asiwaju it is all about outcome. Which winning formula will deliver APC by extension himself in 2027? Remember how Tinubu told Nigerians that he has been nursing the ambition to become president of Nigeria for a long time.

This tells me one thing about the man, this tells me that he’s a man that whilst many are planning thinking of now the man is thinking of the future. He’s a master planner. I am not in Tinubu’s head, I have not heard discussion with him along this line, I however believe that the national assembly zoning formula is based on an arrangement that will get him the win in 2027.

This is what I think played up in Tinubu’s mind that made him arrive at this zoning arrangement with the other APC party leaders. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the president elect would have first of all studied the voting results of all the 6 geo political zones in the just concluded presidential election. See below the breakdown;

NORTH WEST:

2,652,235

NORTH CENTRAL:

1,742, 993

NORTH EAST:

1,185, 458

SOUTH WEST:

2, 279, 407

SOUTH SOUTH:

799,957

SOUTH EAST:

127, 605.

Asiwaju would have calculated that going by the presidential election result the South East is a hostile ground for the APC. Asiwaju’s thinking is that if Peter Obi on his first outing could score about 98% in the South East region, it is most likely that he will still score same if not better in 2027.

Tinubu would have thought if APC zones the Senate president position to the South East what value in terms of favorable political outcome such a move will bring to the APC. This may not sound nice in the ear. It is a political reality.

Today the APC leadership is talking about sharing the positions of the leadership of the national assembly, they are able to do this because they won the election. If the party did not win the presidential election, they won’t have anything to share.This is political reality. If APC leadership decides to zone the Senate president position to the South East, say they give into sentiment, the question one should ask is this; what added value would such a move bring to APC in terms of electoral value. How will the APC win future elections? Remember we now have a third force in labour party. Obidients are not joking. They mean business. If you think they did well in 2023 election. Watch out for their performances in 2027. I am not a mystery mag; Peter Obi is a force to reckon with. He’s now the man to beat in 2027 election. Yes, I said so. He’s a big threat. I have not said that he will win. Neither did I say that he would not win. I am simply saying that if APC is serious about winning the next presidential election the party must keep a tab on labour party. APC or any other political party must get their strategy right to win the labour party in 2027.

Governance or politics is not a popularity context. If you take decisions based on sentiment or emotions you won’t go far. The same way when Bola Ahmed decided to do a Muslim Muslim ticket, there was outcry from some quarters. Bola Ahmed knew what he was doing.

If he settled for the popular opinion who knows he may not have won the presidential election. APC’S choice to reward the North west geo political zone with a chunk of the pie is because the zone more than any other geo political zone made it possible for APC to win the presidential election. Study the table below. Politics, like most things in life, is about the reward system. Don’t expect those who partook to cook a meal, they went to the market to buy the ingredients, they cooked the food, when it is time to eat, those who did not partake in cooking the meal now want to bring out their cutlery to take the front seat in the dining table. I am sorry life is not like that. Forget all the talk about equity, fairness and politics of inclusion. Of course, I believe in the principle of fairness and equity. For the sake of balancing and the politics of inclusion the zoning of the Senate president has to go to the South geo political zone. This is not in doubt. For those who may not know in the South we have South East, South west and South South geo political zones.

The South west is out of it this is because the president elect is from the South West geo political zone. Also, it is vital that the next Senate President not only come from the South axis he or she has to be a Christian. This is because the president elect and his vice are both Muslim. Whilst this may not matter in some jurisdiction, religious sensitivity in Nigeria necessitates this balancing. Read More>>>

To my mind APC leadership already made up their mind that the winning formula for the APC in 2027 is to ensure that they protect their strongholds, for example North West, north East, north central and South west. A bit of votes from the South South may be. They have conceded or given up on votes from the South East. In life you can’t win everything. Tinubu’s thinking is this; he cannot afford not to value and show appreciation to a geo political zone that contributed immensely to his victory.

Let me also add here that the North central also gave Tinubu good votes. I am pretty sure that goodies await politicians from that axis in terms of reward. In Nigeria parlance, juicy positions for their effort. Why risk losing the support of your strong base, why go with the South East even though the people from the South East will not do an APC in future elections. They are most likely to do a Peter Obi. This is why APC leadership went this route. I feel for the people of the South East. I really do. I can just imagine how I would feel if am denied a political appointment based on a reward system on the basis that I didn’t win my polling unit or ward. Assuming this is the case. To be denied such an opportunity would leave a bitter taste in my mouth. No doubt.

If political settings were like a church setting one could advance the argument of fairness and equal share of the pie principle. Unfortunately, this is not the case with our style of politics. Going by the voting numbers in 2023 election you can see why APC leadership settled for the South South geo political zone. South East geo political zone which consists of 5 states. The total 5 states gave APC not up to one hundred and thirty thousand votes. Miserable figures I must confess. It would be difficult for a business owner to reward a manager who gives him six figure number sales above a manager whose sales is in the hundreds.

The rules of the house for our national assembly are clear, it states that a first timer legislature cannot be a principal officer. Godswill Akpabio is not a first-time legislator. I want to conclude this write-up by saying that APC should have settled for another Senator from the South South geo political zone for the position of the Senate president. There are other Senators from the South South who are competent for this position. APC is not set up for only Senator Akpabio. Just the other day he was the minister of the Niger Delta.

Till this day NDDC forensic audit report he promised Nigerians I am not sure it has been produced and submitted to the presidency. To the best of my knowledge Senator Akpabio has pending corruption cases. I am not suggesting that he’s guilty. This choice to me is a wrong move by APC. I have nothing against Senator Akpabio, I am only sharing my thoughts. The choice of Senator Akpabio as the preferred Senate president for the 10th National Assembly only time will tell if this choice is the right one.